Did you just see or hear a weather forecast that promised a specific temperature? How often are those right, not very. Deterministic forecasts, while quick and convenient, do not properly convey the given uncertainty and confidence a forecast has. While some meteorologists convey probabilities with subjective terminology that surrounds a deterministic forecast, those terms can create confusion and disappointment.
Forecasts that have well quantified probabilities that reflect uncertainty and confidence as well as your risk exposure are ideal. Of course this is not always easy to do, but you should seek it out when making important weather related decisions.
As always here are some things you can review to expand your understanding:
- American Meteorological Society statement about enhancing forecasts with probabilities
- Deterministic vs Probabilistic Forecasting
Now let’s jump into the episode